Los Angeles County officials released new projections for the trajectory of the coronavirus, saying the number of new cases is expected to remain steady over the next month rather than continue to climb.
The new forecast paints a slightly brighter future for the county amid the pandemic than earlier ones, estimating that hospitals will be able to manage the demand from COVID-19 patients.
“Data shows that, to date, there continues to be a leveling off of the cases of COVID-19,” Dr. Christina Ghaly, the county’s director of health services, announced during a news conference. “However, new infections are not yet decreasing and we continue to have a need to maintain physical distancing measures to prevent an increase in cases of COVID-19 and to avoid an excessive strain on the hospital system across the county.”
She attributed the steady numbers to the county’s residents complying with social distancing measures, but warned that projections could change and it is all contingent on that compliance continuing.
“Ten days ago, our best prediction was that we were going to see a continued increase in the daily number of new patients, but we weren’t sure how rapid that rise would be and how steep that slope would be,” Ghaly said. “Instead, as a result of physical distancing, our current projection is that the number of new cases will remain steady.”
Still, Ghaly issued the same grim warning as before: If social distancing measures stopped or were reduced too soon, nearly 96% of the county’s population could become infected by Aug. 1.
But if people continue to stay home at current levels, county officials expect around 11% of the population will be infected by that date, she said. And projections show a much lower percentage of people infected if residents stayed home even more.
The total number of COVID-19 cases in L.A. County climbed to 16,435 Wednesday with a total of 729 deaths. The number of reported infections is a lot higher than it was last week due to the county reporting positive cases from a backlog of older tests that labs hadn’t reported to officials earlier.
With previous projections, officials worried that COVID-19 patients would flood into hospitals, overwhelming the county’s health system.
They scrambled to increase capacity, working to add more hospitals beds and bring in more medical professionals to respond to the crisis.
Now, data released by the county shows that the number of people hospitalized for the respiratory illness will remain steady through May. It also shows that the county’s hospitals will have ventilators for patients of the respiratory illness.
The county has also stepped up the number of available beds in intensive care units, and now officials believe there are enough for the next four weeks.
As of Wednesday, 3,902 of all the county’s COVID-19 patients had been hospitalized at some point while battling the illness. On Wednesday, there were 1,791 coronavirus patients still being treated at hospitals in L.A. County, according to the county’s public health director Dr. Barbara Ferrer.
There were over 2,200 staffed hospital beds and another 300 in intensive care units available in hospitals throughout the L.A. County as of Thursday, according to the L.A. County Department of Health Services.
But even with officials now anticipating the county will be able to meet the demand over the next month, Ghaly cautioned that it can all change if there’s a sudden spike or if hospitals can’t adequately staff beds.
“Health care workers have been one of the many heroes of the COVID-19 response in this county, across California, and nationwide,” she said. “But we have to remember that they’re also human, and if a hospital’s ability to staff its beds changes, then we have to reduce the available bed capacity.”
Ferrer said physical distancing remains at the core of stopping the spread of the illness.
