It was all about the big games Sunday.
In Green Bay, the Packers edged the Houston Texans 24–22 on a last-second field goal. Meanwhile in the NFC North, a near-perfect performance by Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions handed the Minnesota Vikings their first loss of the season on a 44-yard Jake Bates field goal in the final minute for 31–29 win. In Santa Clara, the Kansas City Chiefs remained undefeated with a 28–18 win over the San Francisco 49ers, but Patrick Mahomes now having more interceptions (eight) than passing touchdowns (six).
All told, those results helped shape the NFL playoff picture, which will be looked at every week the rest of the way.
Everything will be updated after the Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football games. Additionally, all playoff probabilities are courtesy The Athletic’s model.
AFC: Who’s In
No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 6–0, first place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 7
Playoff probability: >99%
The Chiefs look far from pretty offensively, but they keep winning. On a day where Mahomes threw two interceptions and zero touchdowns, Kansas City beat the 49ers. Now, the Chiefs take on the Las Vegas Raiders before heading home for dates with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Denver Broncos.
No. 2: Houston Texans
Record: 5–2, first place, AFC South
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Playoff probability: 94%
Despite a loss on the last play in Green Bay, the Texans remain the second seed regardless of whether the Baltimore Ravens win in Tampa on Monday night due to conference record.
No. 3: Buffalo Bills
Record: 5–2, first place, AFC East
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Playoff probability: 95%
Buffalo continued to widen its lead in the AFC East with a win over the Tennessee Titans. Amari Cooper fit right in, with his first catch in a Buffalo uniform a touchdown. For the Bills, the question is more about seeding than anything else.
No. 4: Baltimore Ravens
Record: 4–2, first place, AFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 7
Playoff probability: 88%
The Ravens play at Tampa on Monday night, and with a win will remain in first place in the AFC North.
No. 5: Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 4–2, second place, AFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 5
Playoff probability: 60%
Pittsburgh enters Sunday night with a share of first place in the AFC North alongside the Ravens. The Steelers are starting Russell Wilson at quarterback for the first time, playing the Jets on Sunday night.
No. 6: Los Angeles Chargers
Record: 3–2, second place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 5
Playoff probability: 78%
Los Angeles plays Monday night against the Cardinals, trying to win a second consecutive game after the bye. Unfortunately, they’ll likely be without Quentin Johnston and Joey Bosa, who are both doubtful.
No. 7: Indianapolis Colts
Record: 4–3, second place, AFC South
Remaining opponents over .500: 5
Playoff probability: 29%
Indianapolis’s 16–10 win over the Miami Dolphins was far from impressive, but it improved to over .500 with the Texans on deck. If the Colts beat Houston next Sunday, the teams will have split the season series.
In the Hunt
Denver Broncos (4–3): After beating the Saints on Thursday Night Football, the Broncos are in a playoff spot. However, they have a tough remaining schedule, including two games with the Chiefs, while also visiting the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore.
Cincinnati Bengals (3–4): After starting 1–4, the Bengals have won two straight against the New York Giants and Cleveland Browns. Cincinnati is back in the race, with home games against the Philadelphia Eagles and Raiders on the docket before a trip to Baltimore.
New York Jets (2–4): After losing to the Bills on Monday, New York traded for Davante Adams. Now they play the Steelers on Sunday night, hoping to get a win for the first time in four weeks.
NFC: Who’s In
No. 1: Detroit Lions
Record: 5–1, first place, NFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 8
Playoff probability: 91%
Detroit went on the road and handed Minnesota its first loss of the season. The Lions now hold the NFC North lead via tiebreaker with the one-win Titans on deck.
No. 2: Washington Commanders
Record: 5–2, first place, NFC East
Remaining opponents over .500: 5
Playoff probability: 67%
Washington looks to be for real. After losing a tight contest in Baltimore, the Commanders smoked the Carolina Panthers to retain their lead in the NFC East. Next up, the Bears in a late-window affair in Week 8.
No. 3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 4–2, first place, NFC South
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Playoff probability: 70%
Tampa Bay plays on Monday night at home against the Ravens, looking to slow down the tandem of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.
No. 4: Seattle Seahawks
Record: 4–3, first place, NFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Playoff probability: 21%
After losing three straight, it looked like Seattle might be sliding into the abyss. Instead, an impressive win over the Atlanta Falcons has the Seahawks in good position as we head to Week 8.
No. 5: Minnesota Vikings
Record: 5–1, second place, NFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 7
Playoff probability: 90%
Minnesota finally lost, and it stings. The Vikings couldn’t hold a late one-point lead to the Lions at home, and in the process gave up first place in the division. Minnesota now heads to Los Angeles on Thursday to face the Rams.
No. 6: Green Bay Packers
Record: 5–2, third place, NFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 6
Playoff probability: 68%
Green Bay didn’t play its best Sunday against the Texans, winning despite three turnovers. Brandon McManus bailed the Packers out with a game-winning 45-yard field goal as time expired.
No. 7: Chicago Bears
Record: 4–2, fourth place, NFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 8
Playoff probability: 40%
Chicago started 1–2 but has won its past three games against the Rams, Panthers and Jaguars. Out of the bye, the Bears face Commanders in what should be a good test for both teams.
In the hunt
Philadelphia Eagles (4–2): After beating the Giants, Philadelphia still has ample questions but also sits two games over .500 in a bad division. The Eagles defense allowed only 119 yards Sunday.
Atlanta Falcons (4–3): Atlanta had a chance to put pressure on the Buccaneers with a win. However, a blowout loss to Seattle gives Tampa Bay the opportunity to gain a game and take sole possession of first place in the NFC South on Monday night.
Dallas Cowboys (3–3): Dallas is on the bye week after being humiliated by the Lions at home. After their rest, the Cowboys will head west for a primetime showdown against the San Francisco 49ers.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2024 NFL Playoff Picture, Week 7: Four NFC North Teams on Track to Make the Postseason.