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The past 30 years of AL East history can be split roughly into halves: pre- and post-New York Yankees dynasty. From 1996 to 2012, New York won the division an astonishing 13 times in 17 years, and collected five World Series titles.
But since 2013, this division has been defined by parity. During that span, the Boston Red Sox have won the most AL East titles (four) while every other division has a team that finished first at least five times. Also, each AL East team has won the division at least once in the past 12 years.
The Yankees, just like they did in the George Steinbrenner–era glory years, have continued to spend heavily as they look to repeat last year’s World Series appearance. This offseason, after losing the Juan Soto sweepstakes to the New York Mets, New York quickly pivoted by handing out a record contract to two-time All-Star pitcher Max Fried. Still, the Yankees will face stiff competition from the resurgent Red Sox, the thriving Baltimore Orioles and perhaps even the pesky Tampa Bay Rays, especially after losing Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery.
With the additions of Garrett Crochet, Alex Bregman and Walker Buehler, Boston looks poised to reach the postseason for the first time since 2021. Baltimore made the playoffs in each of the last two years but was swept in the first round both times. The organization has a deep collection of promising hitters, but is lacking a top-end starter after Corbin Burnes signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Tampa Bay took a step back last year after posting a .587 winning percentage from ’18 to ’23—a remarkable stretch that saw the Rays make the playoffs five years in a row. The Toronto Blue Jays have a talented yet aging core that could be facing one last hurrah this summer before a franchise reset.
But while the Yankees, the Red Sox and the Orioles appear to have the best squads, if this division has taught us anything in recent years, it’s never to count anybody out.
1. New York Yankees (97–65)
Best case: New outfielder Cody Bellinger looks like the guy who slugged .525 in 2023 and second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. has a 30–30 season, while Aaron Judge thrives after moving from center to right.
Worst case: Bellinger looks like the guy who had a .240 on-base percentage in 2021 and Judge gets no support. Juan Soto wins the National League MVP award and leads the Mets to the World Series.
2. Boston Red Sox (93–69)
Best case: Crochet builds on his breakout 2024 to win the American League Cy Young, while outfielder Roman Anthony shows the form that saw him hit .344 in Triple A. The Sox return to the playoffs.
Worst case: Walker Buehler resembles the pitcher who had 5.38 ERA for the Dodgers last year more than the one who rallied to close out the Yankees in the World Series.
3. Baltimore Orioles (88–74)
Best case: Second baseman Jackson Holliday thrives in his first full season, starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez capably fills the ace role. Shortstop Gunnar Henderson has another massive year.
Worst case: Rodriguez—who was shut down in September with shoulder problems and is opening the year on the IL with a sore elbow—can't stay healthy, and the front office again does little at the trade deadline.
4. Tampa Bay Rays (76–86)
Best case: Led by an All-Star turn from blossoming ace Taj Bradley, the rotation carries the team, and the Rays churn out another 90-win campaign.
Worst case: The hitting remains anemic as the team’s promising young hitters go through growing pains. This year becomes more about the future than the present.
5. Toronto Blue Jays (74–88)
Best case: Shortstop Bo Bichette hits like his old self. New second baseman Andrés Giménez and right fielder Anthony Santander bolster the offense and entice impending free agent Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to stay.
Worst case: Bichette and right fielder George Springer continue to decline, as does starting pitcher Kevin Gausman. Toronto’s contention window closes as Guerrero is traded at the deadline.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2025 MLB Division Previews: American League East.